In the book North Korea: Another Country Bruce Cummings goes out of his way to paint a picture of Kim Jong Il as a well meaning, fairly naive prince born in the wrong century in the wrong country. I am afraid I have to contradict this gentleman. I believe that Kim Jong Il is a manipulative despot who happened to become the eye of a perfect storm forming in Northeast Asia.
For the record, I do not believe being manipulative is a bad thing for a Head of State. There is no righteousness in international politics. We pay our leaders to acquire and allocate resources. The job of a politician is merely to get his or her hands on as many resources as possible for the people who chose him to garner them.
However, the wrong-place-wrong-time label for Mr. Kim is completely inaccurate. It is precisely the time and place that allow The Dear Leader to hold onto his power and effectively run the North in whatever manner he sees fit.
The Korean peninsula is a strategic wet dream for the United States and a liability for China. In the event of war with China, South Korea would become the strategic center of a US campaign. A militarily advanced land base for thousands of US soldiers to pour into the region coupled with perfect missile proximity to China. Four of China's six most populous cities, including Beijing and the large port city Tianjin, are within a thousand miles of South Korea and are easy targets for even the average American missile.
China, seeing the obvious ramifications of the situation, has taken the same approach to North Korea as the United States has toward the South, namely propping up the government with resources like food and electricity in exchange for a Treaty of Friendship. It should never be forgotten that China and North Korea have signed a Treaty of Friendship, the most likely reason why North Korean punishments are typically administered through UN channels rather than a direct confrontation between the United States and Kim Jong Il.
As a result the power in the region became balanced. The United States won't push too hard for reform for fear of provoking China and vice-versa. The two Korean states remain today what they have been since the end of Japanese colonial rule; puppet states of the major powers in the world in the event of a larger strategic need. Out of this stakemate, Kim Jong Il gets free reign. Playing the major powers against each other any rattling of the status quo results in North Korea giving up projects it can't possibly complete (nuclear reactors) in exchange for much needed items and technological equipment (food and US reactors from a saber rattling incident in the early nineties).
Further compounding the situation in the region is Russian economic issues. In order to further develop the Far Eastern regions of nation, have invested large quantities of money into railroads, highways and oil lines in the area. An instability in the region is a serious risk to progress in improving the lives of the citizens on the Pacific. Hence they came to the table, multiplying American and Chinese incentives not to push the issue and allow North Korea to pursue any policy it likes as long as it stays within its own borders.
So Mr. Cumings is idea that Kim Jong Il accidentally tripped into his position and is struggling nobly to keep North Korea together is completely false. He is caught between three nations who have a vested interest in North Korea doing exactly what North Korea does. Any case of human rights abuse, wretched poverty, or provacative actions can only and will only be met with slaps on the wrist. For example, after the infamous 2006 missile launch the UN, at the request of the United States, imposed sanctions upon the North. However these sanctions bar nothing more than the import of luxury goods to an agrarian society. So in effect the launch of the missile lead to a ban on iPods but neccessary items like food, medicine and electricity are still allowed in and are given over to the government who rations them out at its discretion.
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